What is the Single Most Important Metric in All of Basketball?

By Jack Van Deventer • August 2, 2021

Why are there so many basketball metrics?  If you look at statistics available at NBA.com and elsewhere, you’ll find more than 160 measures of basketball performance.  All those metrics have their intended purpose, I’m sure, but how do we avoid getting lost in the weeds, trapped in the minutiae?  The key is to focus on the metric or metrics that are most valuable.  But which one is the best?  Which one is most important?  The most meaningful to a coach?  The key to success?  If you asked 100 different coaches this question, I suspect you’d get about 97 different answers. 

What is the most important outcome in basketball?  Well, of course, that would be winning the game.  So, in a sense one could argue that wins and losses are the most important, but let’s drill down a bit deeper.  How is a single basketball game won?  Again, the answer is straightforward:  by scoring more points than the opponent. 

As such, I will put forth that the most important metric in all of basketball is the point difference between my team and the opponent.  Therefore, as a coach, my goal should always be to maximize the Score Difference between my team and the opponent.

The most important metric in basketball:  Score Difference.

The most important goal for a coach:  Maximize the Score Difference.

But what about all those other metrics?  Aren’t they valuable too?  Well, perhaps, but not always.  I would suggest that while other metrics have the potential to inform me on certain aspects of the game, the key is winning and therefore I need to remain laser-focused on maximizing the Score Difference. 

As a corollary to this, I would submit that other basketball metrics are only valuable to the extent that they contribute to and explain the maximization of Score Difference.  It is true that metrics like shooting precision, rebounding efficiency, and turnovers impact the score, but they themselves are catalysts.  A team can out-shoot and out-rebound an opponent and still lose game.  Therefore, Score Difference remains the foundation for success.  Score Difference is simple and direct.  It’s the central measure around which all other metrics orbit. 

A key part of our mission at BasketballScience.Net is identifying the contributing factors that maximize Score Difference.  In forthcoming articles, we’ll develop the importance of Score Difference in the context of game strategy, game flow, and player personnel groups.  Our goal is to increase your success as a coach.